How a question gets locked.

The easiest way to find a pattern that isn't there is to decide what counts as success after you've seen the data. Everything on this site is built to make that impossible: the question, the measurement, and the bar for "this counts" are all fixed, audited, and frozen before a single test runs.


The lock arc

Five steps stand between an idea and a verdict:

  1. 1

    Draft

    Write the question, the exact thing to measure, and the bar for 'this counts as a yes' , all before looking at the data for this particular test. The bar is a falsification line: state in advance what result would prove the idea wrong.

    Guards against: Setting the bar after seeing the data is how you accidentally draw the target around the arrow.

  2. 2

    Audit

    A fresh session (with no memory of the drafting) reviews the spec against a fixed checklist, actively hunting for ways the measurement could flatter a result.

    Guards against: A second pair of eyes that can't be swayed by what the first one was hoping to find.

  3. 3

    Revise

    The drafter absorbs the audit's findings and fixes the spec, tracking every change in the open record.

    Guards against: Every change is on the record, so nothing is quietly adjusted out of view.

  4. 4

    Re-audit

    Another fresh session checks that the fixes held, and that no new problem slipped in during the revision.

    Guards against: Revisions can introduce new holes; a second audit catches them before they matter.

  5. 5

    Lock

    The spec is frozen and dated. Only now does the test actually run against the data.

    Guards against: After this point the question cannot move to chase the answer.

The rules that bind after the lock

None of this makes a one-person study large, and it can't manufacture certainty the data doesn't hold. What it does is narrower and more honest: it guarantees that when a finding is weak, you find out, instead of being told a confident story that was shaped, step by invisible step, to sound better than the evidence.

The full process and the per-test checklist, in the research repo: hypothesis_lock_process.md ↗ · testing-playbook.md ↗

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