The workings · reading & sources

Reading & sources

What I read, and what this site leans on: the guide, the studies, and the clinical rules behind the findings. Ordered by how close each sits to the project: the guide and its lineage, then the work behind our deeper questions, then the wider background. Plain summaries on the ones that matter most; every link goes to the original.

The guide, and what it builds on

The guide this site tests, and the clinical pacing tradition it grows from.

guide

Smartwatch Pacing

Laure Wiggers · 2025 · Patient-authored guide (ME/CVS Vereniging)

What it is & why it matters

The patient-authored guide this whole site tests. Wiggers, living with ME/CFS and POTS, sets out how to read an ordinary Garmin for the signs of a post-exertional crash. It is the primary source for every pattern I tested.

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clinical guidance

Heart-rate pacing & the 2-day CPET

Workwell Foundation · workwellfoundation.org

What it is & why it matters

The clinical lineage behind staying under a threshold, the resting-heart-rate ceiling and the two-day exercise test that showed the abnormal recovery in ME/CFS. The 'RHR + 15' kind of rule the guide builds on.

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clinical guidance

ME/CFS clinical care & pacing

Bateman Horne Center · batemanhornecenter.org

What it is & why it matters

A specialist clinic's guidance on ME/CFS, pacing, and the 'energy envelope', crash prevention written for patients and clinicians, the clinical backdrop to the guide.

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guide

HRM4Pacing, pacing with a heart-rate monitor for ME/CFS & long COVID

Kathryn Dickinson & HRM4Pacing (patient-led) · hrm4pacing.wordpress.com

What it is & why it matters

A patient-built method, in the same heart-rate-pacing tradition as the guide, for staying under an anaerobic threshold (a resting-heart-rate ceiling, often RHR + 15) to avoid post-exertional crashes. It carries a caveat that matters for this project's own pipeline: Garmin and Polar report resting heart rate as the night's *lowest* HR, which for this patient group may not be true resting heart rate; they recommend using your *average* overnight / sleeping heart rate as the proxy instead.

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Beyond the guide

Work that goes past what the guide covers: the studies behind the deeper questions we ask in beyond the guide (for instance, whether a watch can predict a crash, not just recognise one after).

paper

Wearable biomarkers predicting same-day symptoms in long COVID

Aitken et al. · 2026 · npj Digital Medicine 9:257 (Visible app, n=4,244)

What it is & why it matters

The closest peer-reviewed parallel to this project: across 4,244 people, the Visible app's morning heart-rate and HRV readings helped predict that same evening's crash and brain fog. (Authored by the app's company, read with that in mind.)

paper

Feasibility of modelling next-day fatigue and sleepiness from sleep-tracker data (IDEA-FAST)

Zhai et al. (Newcastle · IDEA-FAST consortium) · 2026 · Frontiers in Digital Health 8:1752629 (n=134, 3,062 nights)

What it is & why it matters

The soberest benchmark for 'can a wearable forecast tomorrow's fatigue'. Across 134 people and 3,062 nights, using the honest test where whole people are held out (leave-one-subject-out), next-day physical-fatigue prediction reached only a modest AUC around 0.75 in healthy adults and fell to about 0.62 in neurodegenerative disease, and the authors call it exploratory. The realistic ceiling this project measures itself against: even a large, well-funded team gets weak, not clinical, prediction, which is why this site claims a weather report and not an alarm.

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paper

Predicting next-day fatigue from HRV and activity–sleep metrics in post-COVID fatigue

Aboagye, Germann, Baker, Baker & Del Din · 2025 · Frontiers in Digital Health 7:1689846 (Newcastle / NIHR · n=68)

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paper

Digital biomarkers of fatigue in chronic diseases: a systematic review

Aboagye, Hinchliffe, Del Din, Ng, Baker & Baker · 2025 · npj Digital Medicine 8:602 (Newcastle / NIHR)

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paper

Recovery from exercise in ME/CFS (2-day CPET; symptom recovery duration)

Moore et al. · 2023 · Medicina 59(3):571

What it is & why it matters

The closest thing to a hard number on how long a post-exertional crash lasts. After a standardised two-day exercise test, 80 people with ME/CFS took a mean of about 12.7 days to recover (range 1 to 64) against about 2.1 days for controls, with a modelled 'extremely prolonged' decay. The literature prior behind this site's 'the feeling heals faster than the body' finding: a days-to-weeks recovery is the expected shape, not an anomaly.

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paper

Prolonged physiological and behavioural changes after COVID-19 (wearables)

Radin et al. · 2021 · JAMA Network Open 4(7):e2115959

What it is & why it matters

The clean population-scale evidence that the autonomic channel is the slowest to settle. Tracking wearable data through COVID-19, resting heart rate took on average about 79 days to return to baseline (after a brief early dip), while behavioural channels — step count and sleep — returned in about 32 and 24 days. The same-direction dissociation behind this site's recovery finding: the heartbeat-derived signal lags the behavioural ones by weeks.

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Pacing & post-exertional crashes

The guide, and the clinical pacing tradition it grows from.

paper

An international survey of experiences and attitudes towards pacing using a heart rate monitor for ME/CFS

Clague-Baker, Davenport, Madi, Dickinson, Leslie, Bull & Hilliard · 2023 · WORK: J. Prevention, Assessment & Rehabilitation (IOS Press), 2023 · n=488

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Heart rate, HRV & the autonomic nervous system

What heart-rate variability is, what normal looks like, and how the body's autonomic balance shifts.

paper

An overview of heart rate variability metrics and norms

Shaffer & Ginsberg · 2017 · Frontiers in Public Health 5:258

What it is & why it matters

A standard reference for what heart-rate variability is and what normal looks like, the foundation for reading HRV at all, and for the sleep-stress proxy this site relies on.

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paper

Inter- and intra-individual variability in daily resting heart rate

Quer et al. · 2020 · PLOS ONE 15:e0227709 (n=92,457)

What it is & why it matters

Resting heart rate varies widely from person to person and day to day, across 92,000 adults. It is the baseline for judging what an unusual personal-RHR shift even means, and why this site reads signals against your own normal.

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paper

Resting heart rate is elevated in ME/CFS

Van Campen & Visser · 2022 · Medical Research Archives 10(6)

paper

Evidence of altered cardiac autonomic regulation in ME/CFS: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Nelson, Bahl, Buckley, Thomson & Davison · 2019 · Medicine (Baltimore) 98:43

What it is & why it matters

Pools 64 case-control studies and finds a reproducible autonomic shift in ME/CFS, higher resting and orthostatic heart rate, a sympathetic tilt, and lower vagal (parasympathetic) HRV. This is the source for the site's line that these bodies tend to sit tilted toward 'activated', with less beat-to-beat variability and slower to settle.

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Orthostatic intolerance & POTS

The circulation-on-standing side of the story: what POTS is, how it's diagnosed, and why a wrist watch can flag a pattern but never see the thing that actually defines it.

paper

Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome: Mechanisms and New Therapies

Mar & Raj · 2019 · Annual Review of Medicine 71:235-248

What it is & why it matters

A clear map of what POTS actually is: an excessive heart-rate rise on standing, driven by one (or more) of three mechanisms, low blood volume, over-active sympathetic drive, or partial nerve damage. It is why 'POTS' on this site means a circulation-on-standing problem, and why a single watch signal can't tell the subtypes apart.

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paper

Resting heart rate variability as a diagnostic marker of cardiovascular dysautonomia in POTS

Inbaraj et al. · 2022 · J Basic Clin Physiol Pharmacol 34:103-109

What it is & why it matters

Why the site is careful with the word 'POTS.' In POTS the resting autonomic balance tips toward stress, heart-rate variability sits lower, not higher. The watch pattern the guide calls a 'U-dip' is a brief move the other way (a calming blip), so it can't be read as a POTS signal; it's a pattern the participant learned to manage as if it were one.

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paper

Cerebral Blood Flow in Orthostatic Intolerance

Khan et al. · 2025 · J Am Heart Assoc 14:e036752

What it is & why it matters

The honest limit, in one paper: in ME/CFS and long COVID, blood flow to the brain can fall on standing even when heart rate and blood pressure look completely normal. A wrist watch reads heart rate, so it is blind to this whole class of orthostatic trouble, the reason this site never claims the watch 'sees your POTS.'

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paper

Postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS)

Low et al. · 2009 · J Cardiovasc Electrophysiol 20:352-8

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paper

Effects of intermittent intravenous saline infusions in postural tachycardia syndrome

Ruzieh et al. · 2017 · J Interv Card Electrophysiol 48:255-260

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How the watch measures it

How a consumer Garmin actually computes stress and heart rate, and how well it holds up.

paper

Validity of the Garmin stress score against ECG-derived HRV

Rosenbach et al. · 2025 · Stress and Health (Wiley)

What it is & why it matters

An independent, pre-registered, peer-reviewed study validating Garmin's stress score against gold-standard ECG heart-rate-variability. The evidence that the sleep-stress HRV proxy used here stands on something real.

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white paper

Stress and Recovery Analysis Method Based on 24-hour HRV

Firstbeat Technologies · 2014 · White paper (Firstbeat, now Garmin)

What it is & why it matters

The white paper for the algorithm Garmin uses, how a 0–100 stress score is computed from beat-to-beat heart-rate-variability. The reason stress and HRV are two views of one underlying signal.

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paper

Guidelines for wrist-worn consumer wearable assessment of heart rate

Nelson et al. · 2020 · npj Digital Medicine 3:90

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paper

Agreement between two photoplethysmography wearables for heart rate across body positions

Alfonso et al. · 2022 · Scientific Reports 12:15448

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paper

Monitoring cardiorespiratory vagal desynchrony using smartwatch ECG biomarkers in long COVID

Kranck et al. · 2025 · Eur Heart J Case Rep 9:ytaf425

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Long COVID & ME/CFS

The biology and the lived experience behind the numbers.

paper

Mechanisms of long COVID and the path toward therapeutics

Peluso & Deeks · 2024 · Cell 187:5500–5529

What it is & why it matters

A flagship synthesis of what is known about Long COVID's biology and the search for treatments, the big-picture context for why a body might behave the way this one does.

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paper

Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations

Davis, McCorkell, Vogel & Topol · 2023 · Nature Reviews Microbiology 21:133–146

What it is & why it matters

A landmark synthesis of long COVID. It anchors the site's framing that post-exertional malaise is reported by a majority of patients, and that dysautonomia and POTS are commonly found, while noting that large-population, diagnosis-specific prevalence figures are still sparse.

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paper

Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome as a sequela of COVID-19

Ormiston, Świątkiewicz & Taub · 2022 · Heart Rhythm 19(11):1880–1889

What it is & why it matters

The source for the site's line that standing intolerance is common while a confirmed POTS diagnosis is a smaller subset: this review reports that roughly 2–14% of COVID survivors develop POTS and 9–61% experience POTS-like symptoms in the months after infection, the figures swinging widely with who is studied and whether POTS is confirmed by a standing or tilt-table test.

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paper

Muscle abnormalities worsen after post-exertional malaise in long COVID

Appelman et al. · 2024 · Nature Communications 15:17

What it is & why it matters

Muscle biopsies before and after exertion in long COVID patients show real, physical damage after a crash, among the strongest evidence that post-exertional malaise is not simply deconditioning.

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paper

Long-term COVID-19 impact on heart rate variability: a systematic review

Suh, Kwon & Lee · 2023 · Healthcare 11:1095

What it is & why it matters

Pulls together the studies on how Long COVID affects heart-rate variability, the autonomic-dysregulation picture in one place, instead of reading each cohort.

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paper

Dysautonomia patterns shared across ME/CFS and post-COVID

Ryabkova et al. · 2024 · Pathophysiology 31:1–17

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paper

Autonomic dysregulation after COVID-19: 24-hour HRV

Mooren et al. · 2023 · Scientific Reports 13:15814

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paper

Cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in long COVID

Marques, Quaresma & Falcão · 2023 · Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine 10:1256512

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paper

The episodic nature of disability in long COVID (qualitative)

O'Brien et al. · 2023 · BMJ Global Health 8:e011276

SSRIs, the nervous system & long COVID

Why an antidepressant was tried for long COVID, and what SSRIs do (and don't reliably do) to heart-rate variability and the watch's numbers.

paper

Impact of antidepressant use on the autonomic nervous system: a meta-analysis and systematic review

Fiani et al. · 2023 · European Neuropsychopharmacology 71:75–95

What it is & why it matters

The best current synthesis of whether antidepressants move the autonomic nervous system. Across 30 studies it found SSRIs have no or inconclusive effects on most heart-rate-variability measures, and the one measure that did move pointed in opposite directions depending on study design. The anchor for this site's 'the HRV story is mixed' line, and for the distinction that the strongly HRV-lowering drugs are the older tricyclics, not SSRIs.

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paper

Differential associations of specific SSRIs with resting-state heart rate and heart rate variability

Kemp et al. · 2016 · Psychosomatic Medicine 78(7):810–8 (n≈10,500)

What it is & why it matters

The strongest single signal that SSRIs can lower HRV, and it names citalopram. In over 10,000 adults, users of every SSRI except fluoxetine had lower heart-rate variability than non-users, with citalopram's effect milder than paroxetine's. Cross-sectional, so it can't prove cause, but it's the closest the literature comes to a citalopram-specific result.

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paper

Serotonin reduction in post-acute sequelae of viral infection

Wong et al. · 2023 · Cell 186(22):4851–4867

What it is & why it matters

The paper that energised the 'give an SSRI for long COVID' idea: it proposed that post-viral inflammation depletes serotonin and thereby dampens vagus-nerve signalling and memory. Influential and ambitious, and, as the commentary filed next to it argues, methodologically contested. Read the two together.

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paper

Effect of early treatment with fluvoxamine on risk of emergency care and hospitalisation among patients with COVID-19 (TOGETHER trial)

Reis et al. · 2021 · Lancet Global Health 10(1):e42–e51

What it is & why it matters

The strongest randomised evidence for an SSRI in COVID. Fluvoxamine, started early in acute infection, cut hospitalisation, probably through an anti-inflammatory (sigma-1) action rather than its serotonin effect. Crucially this is about the acute illness, not treating established long COVID.

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paper

Treatment of 95 post-Covid patients with SSRIs

Rus et al. · 2023 · Scientific Reports 13:18599

What it is & why it matters

Carla Rus's study, the work that put this intervention on my radar. 95 post-COVID patients treated with SSRIs, most of whom improved, brain fog and sensory overload most of all. Exploratory by its own description: a questionnaire study with no control group, so it raises the hypothesis rather than settling it.

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paper

Are all antidepressants the same? The consumer has a point

Camino et al. · 2022 · Psychological Medicine 53(9):4004–4011

What it is & why it matters

Evidence that emotional blunting is a real, recognised SSRI effect, reported more often with serotonergic antidepressants than others, citalopram among them, and one of the side effects most tied to dissatisfaction. The backdrop to my own experience of feeling toned-down.

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paper

The impact of depression and antidepressant treatment on heart rate variability: a review and meta-analysis

Kemp et al. · 2010 · Biological Psychiatry 67(11):1067–74

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paper

Long COVID-19 and peripheral serotonin: a commentary and reconsideration

Anderson et al. · 2024 · Journal of Inflammation Research 17:2169–2172

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paper

SSRI use during acute COVID-19 and risk of long COVID among patients with depression

Butzin-Dozier et al. · 2024 · BMC Medicine 22:445 (N3C, n≈302,000)

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paper

The lived experience of withdrawal from SSRI antidepressants: a qualitative interview study

Mahmood et al. · 2024 · Health Expectations 27(1):e13966

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Resting heart rate, fitness, infection & what moves it

Why a trained body runs a low resting heart rate, how an infection and lost fitness move it, and how little of it is just age, the evidence behind the resting-heart-rate driver ledger.

paper

Effect of endurance exercise on autonomic control of heart rate

Carter, Banister & Blaber · 2003 · Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise / Sports Medicine 33(1):33–46

What it is & why it matters

Why an athlete's resting heart rate runs low, endurance training shifts autonomic balance toward the parasympathetic and lowers resting heart rate (training bradycardia), and the effect fades when training stops. The mechanism behind this record's fitness driver: a trained-low resting heart rate that drifts back up as activity falls away, and that masked the infection's heart-rate rise in the COVID check.

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paper

Pre-symptomatic detection of COVID-19 from smartwatch data

Mishra et al. · 2020 · Nature Biomedical Engineering 4:1208–1220

What it is & why it matters

External evidence that a consumer wristband's resting-heart-rate signal really does move for an infection, here, shifts around COVID-19 that were often detectable before symptoms. The population-scale backdrop to this site's single-person COVID check: the watch moving for a known infection is an established phenomenon, not a one-off.

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paper

Use of cardiopulmonary exercise testing to evaluate long COVID: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Durstenfeld et al. · 2022 · JAMA Network Open 5(10):e2236057

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paper

Autonomic aging – a dataset to quantify changes of cardiovascular autonomic function during healthy aging

Schumann & Bär · 2022 · Scientific Data 9:95

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Method, n-of-1 & comparable studies

Doing a single-person study credibly, and other studies doing something similar.

paper

CONSORT extension for reporting N-of-1 trials (CENT)

Shamseer et al. · 2015 · BMJ 350:h1738

What it is & why it matters

The reporting standard for single-person (n-of-1) trials, the discipline for doing a study of one body credibly. The pre-registration practice on this site follows it.

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paper

Exact and asymptotically robust permutation tests

Chung & Romano · 2013 · Annals of Statistics 41(2):484–507

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paper

Within-person glucose × cognition in type-1 diabetes

Hawks et al. · 2024 · npj Digital Medicine 7:59

paper

Predicting COPD exacerbations from a self-report app

Chmiel et al. · 2022 · JMIR Medical Informatics 10:e26499

paper

Predicting depression and anxiety from phone & wearable data

Moshe et al. · 2021 · Frontiers in Psychiatry 12:625247

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These are background and foundation: surveys and studies of the field, plus the guide and the clinical rules, not findings of this study. The method that turns the data into findings is in the workings; the variables are in the data dictionary.

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